The President's Polling Numbers

February 7, 2004

Much ado has been made recently about the decline in President Bush's polling numbers. The media's celebratory week of announcing the Gallup poll number, showing GWB with an approval rating below 50% was backed up by several new stories devoted to showing that every Democrat currently contending for the nomination could beat the President were the election held today. I think a little perspective here is warranted.

First, understand that for six weeks there have been seven Democrats, covered wall to wall on both cable and network news, taking their shots at the President's policies. Naturally, this will wear on his approval rating. The President's campaign hasn't even started yet, and he has $110,000,000 in bank, ready to go. He will start defending himself and attacking the Democrat nominee once the concrete emergence of the nominee becomes evident. There has been no reason to fight back up to now as the only voters paying close attention are Democrats participating in primaries and caucuses.

Second, national polls don't mean much any more. The country is so closely divided now that I doubt if the President will be the popular vote winner even in 2004, as he is reelected. As we were reminded of so very strongly in the 2000 election, the electoral college determines the winner in the election, not the popular vote. While the "angry left" now sneers at this constitutional arrangement, we should all be thankful for the foresight of our country's founders. Presidential elections are really 50 different state elections, with the individual results aggregated into the electoral college vote at the end. This keeps large cities, where recipients of federal government largesse reside, from deciding the national result. New York City can only create a landslide within New York, and not in the entire country. The more relevant polling is state by state, and we don't know of any polling being done to that extent at this point in the campaign.

Third, all the leading indicators in the upcoming election are in the President's favor, and his biggest challenge is quieting discontent in the GOP. The economy is very strong headed into the election season and is only going to get stronger. The last two quarters saw greater economic growth than in all but two quarters in the Clinton Presidency, and the jobless rate just fell to 5.6%. Interest rates are low, and the equity markets are strong. The economy as an issue is now off the table.

The President is seen as a strong commander in chief, and public support for the war against terrorism and actions in Iraq and other terrorist nations still has widespread support. If the President continues to remind voters of the choice between fighting terrorism abroad, or on our own soil, support for his actions will continue to be an asset, rather than a liability, in this campaign. Only the "angry left" cares about appeasing France, Germany and the United Nations, so our leadership on the issue doesn't play as an issue in the battle for independent votes. Independents care about national security.

Finally, back to the GOP problem for a moment. We don't like an out of control federal deficit, and we don't have a Democrat congress to blame anymore. Our Congressional leaders need to get their act together and quit spending so recklessly. A little know fact it that government revenues have risen as a result of the tax rate cuts (they always do) and spending is the real problem. The size of the federal government has DOUBLED since the 1994 takeover of Congress by the GOP, from $1.2 to $2.4 trillion in annual spending. The base won't tolerate it. We also hate the immigration bill and don't like the fact that illegal immigration is  not being dealt with.

It's not a Mexican issue. Our safety is paramount and loose borders threaten our security. The Medicare bill may have taken an issue off the table against the President for the fall but most of us don't want to pay for Warren Buffet's viagra and that is the real problem with this bill - it solves a problem that never existed. Drug companies have been giving away prescriptions to low income seniors for twenty years and its the low income seniors that need the help. Now we are saddled with a massive entitlement that will bankrupt future generations.

It's time for GWB to show us his Reaganesque leanings and I am confident he will. Polling data today is relatively meaningless. We need to see polls in every State to see what the electoral college vote will be. This is the only tally that matters. I am confident heading into the busy season that we will be inaugurating GWB for another term next January. Let's all work hard and get the job done.

Michael Der Manouel, Chairman
Lincoln Club of Fresno County

Lincoln Club of Fresno County, 4618 N. First St. PMB #311, Fresno, CA 93726. FPPC# 1251995. Lee Brand, Treasurer

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