A Look Ahead to the November Elections
April 25th,
2004
With the 2001
State Legislature producing one of the worst redistricting plans ever
proposed in California, the citizens of California are now faced with
brutal primary elections and literally no real action in general
elections, as 95% of the legislative primary winners under the current
scheme will go on to win in November. Incumbents now are safer than
ever
under this idiotic system. There are a
couple of exceptions to this outcome. First, there are the statewide
contests and this November it will be President Bush and Former Secretary
of State Bill Jones fighting battles to carry California for Republicans
and other right thinking people of various political parties. Second,
there are always local city and county elections and those tend to be won
by the better organized and funded candidates. Third, there are the
legislative seats in the South San Joaquin Valley. Governor Arnold is a
major factor lurking in the political wings as he will surely appear to
assist business friendly candidates in the fall.
The Lincoln
Club of Fresno County has made three South Valley seats a target for our
support this fall.
Congressional
District 20 is being vacated by retiring Congressmen Cal Dooley (D), a
partisan liberal who masqueraded as a "moderate" for about 12 years while
serving in the House of Representatives. This fall, former State Senator
Jim Costa (D) becomes the standard bearer for the incumbent party, while
the Republicans nominated current State Senator Roy Ashburn of
Bakersfield.This District was strengthened for the
Democrats in the 2001 redistricting bill as part of a deal where the
Democrats handed CD 21 to the Republicans (now held by Devin Nunes) in
exchange for taking a Republican seat away down in Long Beach. One problem
for the Democrats: CD 20 as it was redrawn in 2002 is much different in
2004. It's trending Republican in new voter registration and in a few
more months the Republican registration will be at 40%. As a general rule,
Republicans don't ever lose elections in Districts with 40% Republican
registration or better.
Both sides
have good candidates and there will be plenty of money in this race. CD
20 is a GOP target in 2004 and there will be Republicans of national
import in the District regularly to help Senator Ashburn, starting with
House Speaker Dennis Hastert next month. President Bush will also probably
appear in the Valley for an assist as well.
AD 30 is
currently held by Nicolle Parra, who bested Republican nominee Dean
Gardner by 200 votes in 2002. Gardner is all set for a rematch in
2004. There was widespread fraud, abuse and cheating by the Democrats in
2002 in this race, none if it thoroughly investigated by feckless elected
officials. One of the reasons why there was not an investigation was the
presence of Pete Parra on the Kern County Board of Supervisors. He has
since been defeated in his re-election bid and Ms. Parra won't have her
dad to hide behind any longer. Ms. Parra is no friend of State Senator
Dean Florez (D) who represents the area and she has literally no one
protecting her flank in November. Republican registration has improved
2-3% since the last go around and Gardner this time will not be ignored by
the Assembly GOP leadership. Kevin McCarthy (R), Bakersfield is the GOP
caucus chairman now and a smart political operator. This one leans GOP
pickup in November.
AD 31 is the
seat being vacated by Sara Reyes (D), Fresno, due to term limits. She was
elected in 1998 with the help of many, many local Republican business
leaders and she turned out to be a complete disaster, maybe the worst
legislator in the history of the Valley. Her voting record was
indistinguishable from Bay Area Democrats throughout her entire six
years. Good, great riddance to her.
The Democrats
have nominated Fresno County Supervisor Juan Arambula to face Republican
Paul Betancourt in November. This race has gone from off the chart to on
the GOP target list as voter registration is again trending Republican and
will continue to trend Republican all the way to the election. As a
matter of fact, registration in this District is close to where is was in
AD 30 two years ago, so the seat is already competitive.
Arambula has
used the power of his Supervisor seat to raise significant funds for his
race with much of it again coming from members of Fresno's business
community. There is not a one of these GOP donors that can even tell you
how Arambula will vote on business related issues. If he wins in
November he will be disaster on business issues. But he will be slightly
better than Sara Reyes. Juan has a stump speech for Republican audiences
and one for Democrat audiences and he has apparently convinced many
Republicans that he will serve the interests of good public policy related
to economic growth, etc. He won't.
Betancourt is
the perfect candidate for the GOP in this contest. He is a man of the soil
who is well known in farming circles and articulate on issues facing
California families and businesses. Unlike Arambula, Betancourt has
actually worked in private enterprise, a distinction I hope he reminds the
voters of every day. This race has many similarities to the Dan Ronquillo
v. Phil Larson race for County Supervisor. The choice for voters in
November will truly be between urban liberal values and rural conservative
values. Betancourt can overcome all the misguided GOP money pouring into
the Arambula account with a little help from agriculture and the Assembly
GOP in Sacramento, AD 31 will be one to watch in the fall.
There you
have it. The South Valley is the big political battleground in November.
Stay tuned.
Michael Der
Manouel, Jr. |
Lincoln Club of Fresno County, 4618 N.
First St. PMB #311, Fresno, CA 93726. FPPC# 1251995. Lee Brand, Treasurer
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