Coasting to
Re-Election
August 22, 2006
Lets set the stage for Arnold Schwarzenegger’s re-election.
The Governor made it through a long, hot summer with nary a
negative political ad run against him. Leading in
every major poll to date has allowed him to raise
bundles of campaign cash from a largely front
running donor community in California. Los Angeles
Mayor and 2010 Governor in waiting Antonio
Villlarraigosa is purported, with the connivance of
the Democrat speaker Fabian Nunez, to be offering
nothing more than a “head fake” in the direction off
supporting Democrat nominee Phil Angelides.
Democrat staffers and office holders joke that Angelides
means “Kathleen Brown” in Greek. Most expect to
lose in November. Unions are, for now, on the
sidelines. The wrath of teachers, nurses,
firefighters, cops and prison guards from last fall
is but a distant memory as the Governor’s latest
budget had big spending increases for everyone.
Despite their successes in serving as Democrat
proxies in 1998, 2002 and 2005, they wonder whether
to reload against a Governor that has made relative
peace with them.
Voters across the spectrum are depressed, and the political
misery index is higher than I have ever seen it as
both major political parties struggle mightily to
hold on to their base for this Fall’s election.
Liberals try to feed on anger, left center moderates
despair the Westly loss, Republican moderates are
bored, and red meat loving conservatives go hungry
from the political table. People are looking for an
inspiring, optimistic, truthful, and charismatic
leader. They don’t find one that fits the bill,
although Arnold is a far better than his challenger
when measured by these criteria.
The Governor, while in my view still only even money to be
re-elected in November, is in far better position
than anyone, including myself, could have imagined
just a short year ago. He is masterfully
triangulating, perhaps more so than necessary,
weaving in an out of issues and cobbling together
strange coalitions rarely seen in California. He
greatly benefits from a weak, uninspiring Democratic
nominee, and a legislative majority easily loathed
by more voters than ever.
So, where from here? I think the Governor needs to execute a
simple political plan, ripped right from winning
playbooks everywhere.
First, continue the rapid, well documented response to
Angelides attacks. His team has done well so far
and needs to continue. Second, continue with a
message of ”protection”, reminding people of what
Democrat control of State Government was like last
time we tried it. Be specific, and remind them of
the disaster we were facing which led to the recall
election. Third, remind voters of his veto pen, and
announce that he will veto illegal immigrant driver
licenses and single payer health care in a second
term, along with any legislation damaging to the
economy or jobs. Fourth, pledge to balance the
budget every year of his second term, without
raising taxes. Fifth, continue to rail against the
federal government on the immigration issue. This
message appeals to conservatives, independents, and
Reagan Democrats. Last, but not least, continue to
quietly reach out to conservatives with reassuring
messages on fiscal responsibility.
Angelides, if still trailing in the polls in mid September,
will have to turn on the attack machine. The
Governor’s team needs to respond swiftly and
decisively. Nothing, I mean nothing, destroys the
energy of base voters like seeing their candidate
attacked, and not responding swiftly and
effectively. We don’t need a rerun of last
November’s special election.
Again, the Governor is probably even money at this
point for re-election. Angelides has run a weak
campaign to date. Without making major mistakes and
well prepared to execute a solid turnout plan, the Governor may well be able to keep this race
close long enough to win in November. |