I want to be wrong
I want to be wrong. I want to be wrong!
But my gut feeling about 2006 is very, very
negative. And its not just an emotional reaction about
tonight's election results.
First, I have to disagree with my
colleague Dan Schnur about the Governor's re-election
chances for next year. Having been swept tonight by
California's voters, an already uphill fight next year,
in my mind, is essentially decided. I mean, how can a
political team that took him from a 73% approval rating
to 37% be trusted to reverse course next year in the
face of the same intense opposition? Unless there is a
total housecleaning in the political shop, there is
minimal chance of re-election.
How much money will it take to buy Arnold's approval
rating back up to 50%, drive unknown quantities Westly
or Angelides negatives to over 50%, and talk about
issues? Me thinks more than Arnold can raise. I want to
be wrong, but its probably not a stretch to say that his
fundraising capabilities have just taken a beating for
next year along with the initiatives tonight.
Second, I think a case can be made, in a
cruel way, that the Governor's early successes hurt him
in this current campaign. Having refinanced the State's
debt, fixed Workers Comp (the equivalent of a $10
billion tax cut on business), and vetoing the worst of
Democrat legislation, the Governor solved a boatload of
problems his first two years in office. In my
estimation, these successes tempered the sense of
urgency for further reform. Thus, his four pet measures
went up in flames tonight as the people said "no more"!
Some will say that the entire election
was a bad idea. I disagree. Tactical mistakes were made
but lets not forget that the Governor was at 73% when
this entire process started and he wanted to push the
envelope as far as possible and gain further victories
in key areas such as budgetary discipline and
redistricting. The unions and Democrats drove his
approval ratings into the 30's, made the special
election about him, and won big tonight. Fair and
square. Right out of the playbook.
So where from here? Part of me wants to
give the barbarians at the gate the keys to the State
and let Democrats have control again. I might yet come
to my senses, but inside of two years, after they rack
up huge deficits, reverse Workers Compensation reform,
grant driver licenses to illegal aliens, and raise the
minimum wage, maybe our citizens will learn, finally,
that Democrats cannot be trusted with both the
legislative and executive branches of California
Government.I realize that this
is a very cynical worldview, but in the long run, it
might be best to let them have California back just long
enough to ruin it again and give Republicans a chance to
govern from a position of strength. The people
ultimately get the government they deserve. Maybe its
time to let voters feel the full pain from the decision
they made tonight in rejecting a Governor that, for all
of his problems, has been visionary, aggressive and
successful in dealing with the mess left to him by Gray
Davis just two short years ago.
Michael Der Manouel, Jr. |
Lincoln Club of Fresno County, 4618 N.
First St. PMB #311, Fresno, CA 93726. FPPC# 1251995. Lee Brand, Treasurer
Comments, questions?
E-mail Webmaster
©2007 Fresno County Lincoln Club
|